The record · HODL-21

The plan said 75 days for every supplier. The real range was 32 to 82.

166 purchase orders tracked to the SKU line. Once the receipts were measured instead of assumed, the spread was the finding, and that gap is the whole argument for measuring.

01 · Cycle time

We measured how long each order actually took.

134 orders have arrived and closed. The median took 63 days against a plan that assumed 75 for everyone, on a lane that is 100 percent sea with no air option.

WHAT THE PLAN ASSUMED75 d FOR EVERYONEWHAT THE RECEIPTS SHOWED32 d82 dMEDIAN 63 d134 ORDERS ARRIVED AND CLOSED, EACH ONE TIMED100 PERCENT SEA, NO AIR LANE IN THE DATA
02 · What the work covers

Orders, routes, and what re-ordering showed about price.

Two routes run out of the same factories, and both were measured separately.

63 SHIPMENTS, 49,243 UNITS, TWO ROUTESCHINASUPPLIER3PLWAREHOUSEAMAZONAWD + FBA17,820 UNITS STRAIGHT TO AMAZON36.2 PERCENT OF WHAT MOVED31,423 UNITS VIA THE WAREHOUSEBOTH ROUTES MEASURED SEPARATELY
WhatMeasured
166 POs

Covering 77,230 units, placed through 18 Alibaba order numbers and 4 manual orders, each tracked to the SKU line.

63 shipments

Three nodes, China supplier to third-party warehouse to Amazon AWD and FBA, carrying 49,243 units, of which 17,820 units, 36.2 percent, moved straight to Amazon.

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Supplier relationships, named down to the company, with measured lead times spread more than two to one between the fastest and the slowest.

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SKUs re-ordered over time came in cheaper on the latest purchase order than on the first. One dropped from $1.33 a unit to $0.58.

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The fit call

If every supplier has the same lead time in the plan, measure the receipts.

Bring the supplier who is always about two weeks away. We will compare the plan against the order history.

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